Thursday, November 10, 2011

Italy's issues push gold higher

Asia stood above $1,790 ahead of London's opening this morning with the euro at €1: $1.3771 and the gold price in the euro at €1,299.83.  
The Fix was set at $1,794.00 with the euro price Fixed at €1,301.509 while the euro was at €1: $1.3784.
The gold price held just slightly below that level at $1,793.00 while the euro weakened slightly ahead of New York's opening to €1: $1.3767 making the price of gold in the euro €1,302.39.  The London gold Fix remains the dominating factor for the gold price.
The silver price rose but only slightly at $34.77 ahead of London's opening. It is struggling to break the $35 level and stay alongside gold. Thereafter, remarkably it slipped to $34.82 ahead of New York's opening.
Gold (very short-term)
The gold price should be subject to Berlusconi's political survival today.
Silver (very short-term)
The silver price should be subject to Berlusconi's political survival today.
Price Drivers
The Eurozone crisis has shifted gear to a higher one as Italy's Prime Minister, Berlusconi is the subject of another vote of confidence, but this time he may not make it. With debts of €1.8 trillion, more than 120% of Italy's GDP and sluggish, if any growth; if Italy turns to the Eurozone for help then the very survival of both the euro and the Eurozone is doubtful.
It has taken over two years to sort out the much smaller Eurozone member's debt crises of a much smaller scale. Italy's problems are just too much to swallow. This is what the rising gold price is telling us now. For the first time the survival of the entire Eurozone is questionable. What is not being highlighted is the massive flight of capital to Germany [so much that the German Bunds won't be able to absorb it]. This leaves these debt-distressed nation drained of capital. Whether in the euro or not, it is unlikely that the governments of these nations will be able to resuscitate growth there. To do so they will have to meet German standards, which they have never been able to do in the past.

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